03 May 2022 – FX daily insight

market news summary

Euro remains weak;

WTI is at a critical level;

Gold losing $25 per ounce;

Bitcoin is unlikely to recover.

U.S. Dollar Index (USDX)

The U.S. Dollar traded slightly below 103.50 near its all-time high slightly at 103.90. As mentioned before the price is expected to trade around the range of 103.50 for the week due to the volume traded and reactive trading.

Meanwhile, the trend will keep trading in a slow pattern until it breaks above 104 for a new high or below 103 for a reversal trend towards 101.10. Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD, on the other hand, continue to show prices moving upward.

PIVOT POINT: 103.50

	R1	R2	R3
RESISTANCE	103.80	104.00
	S1	S2	S3
SUPPORT	103.10	102.80

Euro (EURUSD)

The Euro remains near its five years low despite the short swings to 1.0577 and it keeps the downtrend on the daily chart as well as the hourly chart. In the short term, for the EURUSD to bounce up the prices should break above 1.0580, while in the long term it might show a slight sign of recovery if it broke above the resistance range between 1.0800 and 1.0940. As the technical indicators show stability around the current levels, while price action indicates a probability to drop further.

PIVOT POINT: 1.0520

	R1	R2	R3
RESISTANCE	1.0575	1.0610	1.0650
	S1	S2	S3
SUPPORT	1.0490	1.0455	1.0410

Sterling Pounds (GBPUSD)

The Cable retains its downtrend under the pressure from the U.S. Dollar, the sterling pound will be under heavier pressure later this week as traders wait for the BoE statement. However, it is expected for the sterling pound to reach the low of 1.2300 before bulls reclaim the lead or slow down the fall.

The RSI and MACD are showing signals for a further decline in a slow fashion, while price action retains the reading of a low of 1.2300.

PIVOT POINT: 1.2500

	R1	R2	R3
RESISTANCE	1.2565	1.2635	1.2690
	S1	S2	S3
SUPPORT	1.2440	1.2360	1.2300

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The USDJPY remains on an uptrend on the daily chart, after reaching a 20-year high above 131.20 last week. The pair is moving in a bullish trend on the hourly chart, as it is retesting the resistance level of 130.35 following an initial impulsive rise to the upside. Technical indicators imply that prices will continue towards 133.10.

PIVOT POINT: 130.35

	R1	R2	R3
RESISTANCE	131.20	132.10	133.10
	S1	S2	S3
SUPPORT	129.70	129.10	128.60

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

The precious metal is trading under heavy pressure this week and broke below the support range between 1,920 and 1,900. The hedging bullion traded at 1,855 confirming the downtrend towards 1,800 which can be considered as emotional support more than technical support.

The hourly chart shows a continuation of the bearish trend line targeting 1,825 on the hourly chart while targeting 1,800 on the daily chart. Furthermore, both the RSI and the MACD imply that the bearish trend will continue.

PIVOT POINT: 1,850

	R1	R2	R3
RESISTANCE	1,875	1,880	1,888
	S1	S2	S3
SUPPORT	1,840	1,830	1,825

WTI (USOUSD)

The U.S. Oil traded flat this morning as supply and demand uncertainty takes over the market. Similarly, the overall trend remains undecisive and the short-term short candles favour the negative trend. The crude oil is forming light support at 103 on the hourly chart which is unlikely to hold for long when the FOMC statement is announced.

Technically, MACD and RSI show a high possibility to drop towards $100 a barrel. Meanwhile, the intersection with the 20 periods MA indicates support at the level of $103 a barrel.

PIVOT POINT: 103.10

	R1	R2	R3
RESISTANCE	103.75	104.25	105.00
	S1	S2	S3
SUPPORT	102.85	101.55	100.40

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

The Bitcoin traded horizontally this morning around the support mentioned yesterday at 38,500. The leading cryptocurrency trend intersects with the 20 periods moving average indicating a possibility of a decline towards 38,000.

However, the Bitcoin trend on the daily chart remains bearish and tends to continue unless the price breaks above 41,000, which is unlikely. Furthermore, both the RSI and MACD indicators show a likelihood of further decline towards 38,00 during the day.

PIVOTPOINT: 38,500

	R1	R2	R3
RESISTANCE	39,880	39,250	39,500
	S1	S2	S3
SUPPORT	38,000	37,770	37,500